前言

   1998年3月民建中央向九屆政協會議提出《關于借鑒國外經驗，盡快發展我國風險投資事業的提案》，被列
為“一號提案”。同年12月原國家計劃發展委員會向國務院提出“盡早研究設立創業板塊股票市場”。由此，
風險投資受到科技界、企業界和金融界的普遍關注，一批新的風險投資機構相繼成立，1998-1999年形成了
“風險投資熱”。以IT、生物醫藥、新材料為代表的一大批優秀的創業企業和高成長性企業獲得風險投資并
蓬勃發展起來。

作為關系國計民生的特殊產業，醫藥產業一直是風險投資重要領域，但是針對性深入研究卻沒有得到應有重
視，而細化到醫藥風險投資分階段系列而深入的研究及后續的風險管理更是空白。本書以我國醫藥風險投資
項目評價和風險管理作為研究對象，在醫藥風險企業發展的不同時期（種子期、成長期、成熟期）定性研究
的基礎上，分別運用神經網絡模型及粗糙集信息熵建立醫藥高科技風險投資多指標綜合評價神經網絡方法及
投資優序評價模型予以定量研究，并運用于實際醫藥風險投資中。在構建了醫藥風險投資定性和定量的方法
后，針對投資決策過程中尋租性風險，應用博弈論分析方法，研究投資決策中一次性尋租行為和重復性尋租
行為，建立相應的分析模型，指出投資決策中尋租性風險存在的必然性及巨大危害，并針對性地提出了適合
實際操作的對策建議。之后，從行為學角度審視風險投資行為理性差異，并在此基礎上引入群體決策（GASS）
方法，通過構建科學、動態的醫藥風險投資項目群體決策研討系統，把專家體系、數據和信息系統以及計算
機體系有機結合起來，從而盡可能避免在風險投資決策中人行為的非理性。最后，從組織機制、利益機制和
程序機制這三個方面建立了機制→流程→風險管理實務三個層次的風險管理框架。由此，從定性和定量的角
度構建了一套較為系統和完善的我國醫藥風險投資項目評價和風險管理方法。該方法對于IT、新材料、新能
源、環保等領域的風險投資也有借鑒意義。

2008年3月21日中國證監會向社會公開征求對《首次公開發行股票并在創業板上市管理辦法》的意見。證監會
表示，創業板市場的推出，有助于緩解中小企業，尤其是中小高科技企業融資難的問題，有利于完善創業資
本退出機制、促進創業投資的發展和企業創新機制的形成。它的建立，對創新型國家的構建、經濟結構的調整
、資本市場功能的完善和促進主板市場健康穩定的發展都具有積極而深遠的影響。

我們可以預見隨著我國創業板的開設和不斷發展，一個精彩紛呈、活力迸發的風險投資嶄新歷史時期即將開始。

由于作者水平有限，錯漏之處，敬請同仁斧正！

                                                                                                             作者
                                                                                                        2009年元月

ABSTRACT

As count for much the national economy and the peoples livelihood, Pharmaceutical industry
is the important realm for venture capital investment, but academia did not attach importance
to the pertinence research Experimental research is a representative research method on the
criteria venture capitalists use in evaluation potential investments As criticism point out
that the relevant research neglected the difference of industry and the difference between
 different stages in enterprise development Studies by Gompers (1995) who interviewed 795 VC
companies find that  the average stage of VC is 2689The state of neglect the difference of
 industry and the difference between different stages in enterprise development is deadliness

The main work and conclusion of this paper are as follows:

1) At the beginning, this paper reviews and synthesis the main venture capital investment
 development process, standpoint, theories, method, model of risk management, etc Based on
 former research, using the data of questionnaire survey from 397 correlative people and SPSS11
0, this paper set up evaluation model for pharmaceutical venture capital investment at Seed
 stage, Development stage and Profitable stage At each end of these three chapters，give two
 practicality case proved that this evaluation system is useful and meaningful

Substudy founds that R&D risk is the most important risk and profitability& asset liquidity
is the most important risk in second risk level in seedstage venture capital investment
Market risk is the most important risk and the advanced &practicality of R&D is the most
important risk in second risk level in development stage venture capital investmentMarket
risk is the most important risk and market competition structure and the company position is
the most important risk in second risk level in profitable stage venture capital investment

2) With an analysis of the risk of investing in hightech in pharmaceutical VC projects, this
 paper proposes a multi target synthetic evaluation method based on BP neural network
 The method can simulate the expert in evaluating the investing risk, thus avoiding the
subjective mistakes in the evaluation process The simulation test indicates that results
achieved by this method are satisfactory In some cases, because of less of training date,
 we can not use BP neural network method On this basis, using the method of neural network
 Skeletonization, define node sensitivity  with parameter adjustment the firstorder filter
 to improve the sensitivity of the calculation algorithm be using MATLAB program The result
 of running the program is deletion of two input nodes (factors), and six hidden nodes
The more important meaning is achieving a method of nonlinear systems based on neural network
structure identification It has certain value in socioeconomic and nonlinear systems
engineering identification

According to actual investment operation, this paper leads the information entropy of rough set
 theory into investment evaluation model Verified by a actual investment case, the proposed
approach try to research the application of rough set theory in investment field

3) Reviews the games of investment decision between personal reasonableness and collective
reasonableness The quantitative analysis models are established，and the impact of the
management system on the equilibrium action of the players is analyzed The result shows that
the action of rentseeking in investment is inevitable in the current enterprise management
system Furthermore，some methods for reducing the possibility of the action are given

4)Introduce Group Argument Support Systems （GASS）,construct investment risk and decision
making processes through expert system framework, integrate the targets system, the expert
system and machine system, and gives an example Found that the parties can be effectively
integrated project evaluation, investment risk evaluation more scientific and effective

5） Establish (mechanisms → process → risk management practices) three levels of risk
 Management system thought organizational mechanisms, interest mechanism and procedures
 mechanisms

KEY WORD：Venture capital investment；Pharmaceutical industry；BP neural network model；
Information entropy；Game theory analysis；Risk management

TYPE OF DISSERTATION：Applied Fundamental